Social Policy in Ontario

Long-form census is needed for good decision-making

Posted on February 6, 2015 in Governance Policy Context

—

TheStar.com – Opinion/Editorials – The Harper government’s decision to do away with the compulsory long-form census is costing Canada dearly. It should be brought back.
Feb 05 2015.   Editorial

It’s like pulling government policies out of a black hole.

That’s what groups as varied as the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, doctors, charities, city planners, educators, economists, business leaders, scientists, academics, pollsters, civic activists and ordinary citizens alike have been arguing since the Harper government ditched the long-form census back in 2010.

Without the detailed statistical data contained in it – about employment, education income and much more – governments have less information with which to develop social and economic policies. That means key decisions by all levels of government are being made more and more on ideology and guess-work, rather than hard statistical evidence. Policy-makers are groping in the dark.

So it was good news this week when both municipal and federal politicians shone a new spotlight on the issue. They are right to do so.
The evidence is mounting that the Harper government’s decision to do away with the compulsory long-form census and replace it with a voluntary National Household Survey – which cost $22 million more to produce – is costing Canada dearly.

Not that the government wasn’t warned. The problems with the household survey were apparent to experts from the get-go.

First, it’s voluntary, so compliance is down. The response rate for the 2006 long-form census was 93.5 per cent, compared to 68.6 per cent for the National Household Survey. That rate was so low that Statistics Canada withheld information on more than 1,000 smaller communities because the information was statistically unreliable.

Second, certain population groups are more likely than others to fill out a voluntary form. Those who fill out a voluntary form tend to be better educated, well-to-do and urban; that leaves big gaps of knowledge about disadvantaged and minority groups.

In the end, those trying to plan for the future must make decisions without a firm base of statistical evidence about how our society is changing. Transit experts will end up guessing where they should put new bus routes; school boards can’t be so sure where they might need a new school; public health officials won’t know where to expand services.

The Harper government has remained oblivious to criticism on this issue. But pressure is mounting from politicians and the public to reverse the mistake of 2010.

First up this week was a private member’s bill to bring back the long-form census sponsored by Liberal MP Ted Hsu. While he did not get the votes he needed to support it, his bill drew much-needed attention to the issue.

A second private member’s bill, from Conservative MP Joe Preston, is due for debate in March — and there’s reason to hope it may get more attention in Parliament.

That’s because Preston’s bill may overcome opposition in Conservative party ranks by removing two aspects of the long-form census that were problematic for the Harper government: the threat of jail time for those who didn’t fill it out, and automatic public disclosure of the information after 92 years.

Also this week, Toronto Mayor John Tory raised the issue at a meeting of the country’s so-called big-city mayors. Many of them have already gone on record demanding the long-form census be brought back.

Tory’s point was simple but telling: “I believe you should try to have the best possible evidence in front of you when you are making important decisions.”
It sounds obvious, but those sentiments contrast sharply to ones espoused by some in the Harper government. When he was justice minister, Defence Minister Rob Nicholson said: “We don’t govern on the basis of statistics, we govern on the basis of what we hear from the public.”

If that’s the case, it should be abundantly clear by now – even to the government – that the public wants the long-form census brought back for 2016.

< http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2015/02/05/long-form-census-is-needed-for-good-decision-making-editorial.html >

Tags: economy, Health, homelessness, housing, ideology, immigration, multiculturalism, participation, poverty, standard of living

This entry was posted on Friday, February 6th, 2015 at 8:49 am and is filed under Governance Policy Context. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.