Protected from voters’ wrath, Doug Ford’s latest budget defies fiscal reality
Posted on March 27, 2026 in Governance Debates
Source: TheStar.com — Authors: Martin Regg Cohn
TheStar.com – Politics/Political Opinion
March 26, 2026. By Martin Regg Cohn, Political Columnist
The best that can be said about yet another wrong-headed budget from Doug Ford is that this one proves him right — on timing if not on governing.
Thanks to his cynical calculation and manipulation of a year ago, when the premier triggered a Trumped-up election 17 months ahead of schedule, he is today sitting pretty — protected from voter wrath and regret.
He won that early election by promising to “Protect Ontario.” A campaign slogan does not a budget make, yet that’s the title of this year’s budget.
Let us read and weep over “A Plan to Protect Ontario.” For it protects the premier from voter accountability and fiscal reality.
It says here on page 36 that Ontario boasts “the most competitive, resilient and self-reliant economy in the G7.”
Are we truly the best of the all the rest of the West’s rich economies? Sounds awfully impressive — until you flip to page 150, where the awfully bleak numbers undercut the boastful words:
In fact, Ontario’s economy grew by a miserly 1.2 per cent last year and will fare even poorer this year at one per cent growth. Bad as that is, compare that to projected economic growth in Donald Trump’s America of 2.4 per cent — well over double that of Ontario.
10 things to know about Ontario’s budget
The 231-page document released Thursday lays out the bare-bones, bad news budget that Ford didn’t want voters to see before casting their ballots. All his talk of prudent economic stewardship cannot conceal a mountain of debt soon to exceed half-a-trillion dollars and a deficit that has ballooned back up to $13.8 billion.
Bad as they are, those swollen numbers are merely symptoms of a deeper economic malaise brought on not just by Donald Trump’s recklessness but Ford’s impulsiveness. Ontario’s balance sheet has been bled into the red by tax giveaways in good times and spending curbs in bad times, leaving the economy more exposed than ever.
Unemployment has reached disturbing levels not seen in decades (apart from the pandemic). Youth unemployment has skyrocketed under Ford at the very time that post-secondary education has tumbled to new depths.
Belatedly, this budget throws some money at cash-starved colleges and universities, but it does so on the backs of the neediest students for whom OSAP grants have been slashed — leaving them bearing the burden of the rescue effort.
It will only get worse. For this budget document concedes what the premier concealed on the campaign trail last year.
The government had previously forecast economic growth of 1.9 per cent for 2027, but that’s been updated downwards in Thursday’s budget to 1.7 per cent (compared to a more robust 2.1 per cent in the U.S.). That weakening economy is reflected in Ontario’s unemployment rate, which rose to 7.7 per cent last year and is destined to hover at 7.4 per cent for the rest of this year.
Ontario’s accumulated debt is on track to set a record of $514.4 billion by 2027-28, which is $12.7 billion more than originally projected in the 2025 budget. Divided up among all Ontarians, the current debt level amounts to nearly $30,000 per person, compared to about $23,000 when the Liberals were last in power.
To be fair, the U.S. president is waging a tariff war against Canada that is hurting employment. To be sure, Trump is waging a high-stakes war against Iran that will blow up this budget’s baseline (notably the budget’s conservative projection of two per cent inflation).
True enough, those global circumstances lie beyond the control of Ontario’s finance minister, the parsimonious Peter Bethlenfalvy. But here’s something else Bethlenfalvy can’t control — an impulsively populist, seat-of-the-pants premier who excels at electioneering over economics.
Little wonder Bethlenfalvy spends so much time in his budget speech sugar-coating the bad news numbers with optimistic prose. From one page to the next, this budget is burdened with Ford’s flights of fiscal fancy:
- On page 87, behold the homage to Ford’s “tunnel expressway under Highway 401.” Fieldwork on a feasibility study starts this spring on this underground dead end.
- On page 100, the budget formalizes Ford’s fantasy of a new island jetportto boost the economy (never mind that Billy Bishop’s once and future traffic is almost a rounding error compared to the burgeoning economic zone that surrounds Pearson airport).
- On page 193, a buried budget item allocates a whopping $6.91 billion this year (and just about every year) to subsidize electricity rates for everyone, in hopes that no one will notice the inexorable increase in hydro bills.
- On page 54, small business gains yet another shout-out from politicians trying to outdo one another in cutting taxes. There’s a whopping 30 per cent cut in the tax rate, pushing it down to a mere 2.2 per cent this year.
- On page 117, first-time homebuyers will get a break this year. At least it’s well-timed, given the challenges of housing starts and affordability in a depressed market.
- On page 119, the budget boasts about forgoing $2.1 billion in gas taxes while saving lucky suburban commuters $7,200 a year in road tolls along the government-owned portion of Highway 407
Truth be told, this government never met a tax cut it didn’t like. While the homebuyers tax credit is defensible, it’s the other taxes, at other times, that are coming home to roost — and boost the deficit.
Ford’s Tories have slashed traditional revenue sources by billions of dollars in good times — licence plate fees, gas taxes and tolls for drivers — only to drive the government deeper into deficit and debt when the bad times inevitably turn up.
Interest on Ontario’s exploding debt will rise from $15.1 billion in 2024-25 to $19.7 billion in 2028-29 — an increase of 30 per cent. In the latest budget, those interest payments are now the Ford government’s fourth-biggest expenditure — after health care (41 per cent), education (16.7 per cent) and social services (8.8 per cent). In fact, servicing Ontario’s half-trillion-dollar debt now soaks up more government spending, at 7.1 per cent, than post-secondary education, which gets only 5.7 per cent.
I don’t begrudge a government borrowing money in tough times for good reasons. That’s different from a government that erodes its revenues sources merely to give away pre-election goodies, and then calls an early election — before voters can make an informed choice on the budgetary outlook.
Give Ford credit for good electoral timing. Too bad that political credit is counterbalanced by the massive fiscal debt coming due.
https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/protected-from-voters-wrath-doug-fords-latest-budget-defies-fiscal-reality/article_5dfbb84b-3aaa-4b21-af03-c13b42cad4fa.html?source=newsletter&utm_content=a01&utm_source=ts_nl&utm_medium=email&utm_email=0C810E7AE4E7C3CEB3816076F6F9881B&utm_campaign=top_33059
Tags: budget, economy, ideology, jurisdiction, tax
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