Social Policy in Ontario

As recently as 2006, Canadian liberals worried that a social-conservative tide led by Stephen Harper would sweep the country, taking us back to the era of restricted abortion, capital punishment, official discrimination against gays and father-knows-best.

But the reactionary tide, to the chagrin of some of the Conservative Party of Canada’s staunchest backers (and arguably Stephen Harper’s opponents, who’d hoped to cast him as a fundamentalist zealot) never came.

Even today, with the Harper government in majority, the so-called hidden agenda shows no signs of materializing. If anything, the prime minister and his cabinet appear more determined than ever to keep their social-conservative base in check – witness their quashing of Kitchener Centre MP Stephen Woodworth’s attempts to restart the abortion debate.

And now we know why: As the latest batch of census data from StatsCan reveals, the character of the country has changed. And it continues to change, at a pace that suggests the trend may be irreversible. Don and Betty Draper, of Mad Men, with their perfect nuclear family (pre-divorce, that is) are truly ancient history.

For example: In 2011, building on a trend established in 2006, only 39.2 per cent of Canadian census families (defined as a married or common-law couple, regardless of gender, with or without children, or a lone parent living with one or more children in the same home) had children. A significantly larger number – 44.5 per cent – had no children. And the proportion of those without children is rising.

“Traditional” nuclear families – married couples with children – now make up barely more than a third of families, 31.9 per cent. That’s well down from 37.4 per cent in the 2001 census.

Of the 9,389,700 family units accounted for in the 2011 census (up 5.5 per cent from 2006), growing numbers are nontraditional. Between 2006 and 2011, for example, the number of common-law couples rose 13.9 per cent – more than four times the rate of increase for married couples. The number of single-parent homes has grown nearly 10 per cent since the last census, with the number of male, lone-parent families up 16.2 per cent.

The proportion of children – defined as those aged 14 and under – living with parents in common-law arrangements is up sharply, to 16.3 per cent from 12.8 per cent in 2001. And unconventional child rearing is now relatively common, with one-in-10 children living in a stepfamily of some sort, with various combinations of parents and children from current and previous relationships.

Most striking, with respect to the so-called Conservative hidden agenda, is the huge increase in same-sex unions. A total of 64,575 same-sex-couple families were recorded in the 2011 census – up more than 40 per cent from 2006. Of these, 21,015 were married, while 43,560 were common-law. The proportion of same-sex couples choosing to marry is now 32.5 per cent – double what was recorded in 2006.

Viewed historically, the numbers are even more striking. In 1961, married couples accounted for more than 90 per cent of census families. By last year, the proportion had dropped to 67 per cent, driven mainly by the increase in common-law couples. In 1961, fewer than nine per cent of families were single parent. In 2011, 16.3 per cent of all families were single parent, with the rise driven by higher divorce rates.

The implications for policymakers are profound.

In the 2005 federal political campaign, for example, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives ran on a platform that offered policy baubles to families with children – the child fitness tax credit being the most obvious example. That suited the Conservative and conservative ideal of family as the core unit of social structure. How effective will such messaging be in 2015?

The numbers also suggest there is room now for new policy specifically designed to address the needs of non-conventional families, and sold as such. Divorce, for example, is the single greatest wealth destroyer among members of the middle class: Could more be done to help newly divorced couples bridge the gap?

Not only does the increase in non-conventional family arrangements suggest social conservatism is well and truly dead in Canada, as a political force., it also presents a challenge to the ruling Conservatives.

In Quebec, a nominally socially progressive party has just taken power. In British Columbia, the New Democrats are on the ascendant; in Alberta, a socially progressive Tory party has taken power. In Ontario, the New Democrats are surging in popularity. The data beg the question: Is there more to the social-democratic surge than simple fatigue with the incumbents? If so, could that trend work in the New Democrats’ favour federally, in 2015?

Stephen Harper and his ministers have got away until now with a posture of stodgy indifference to most social issues, with the exception of Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird speaking up in defence of persecuted gays overseas.

Given the shifts underway, the day may soon come when indifference is no longer enough.

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