Slumping oil price undercuts Stephen Harper
TheStar.com – Opinion/Commentary – Harper rails at environmental advocates as his oil-centred economic vision runs aground.
Dec 14 2014. By: Carol Goar, Star Columnist
It would be “crazy economic policy” to regulate greenhouse gases in the oil and gas sector with petroleum prices dropping, Prime Minister Stephen Harper told Parliament last week. “We will not kill jobs and we will not impose the carbon tax the opposition wants to put on Canadians.”
– About as crazy as putting all the nation’s eggs in one basket: Canada becoming a global “energy superpower.”
– About as crazy as ignoring the boom-and-bust history of the oil and sector.
– About as crazy as assuming people will allow pipelines to snake under their land, carrying bitumen from Alberta’s oilsands to refineries in Texas and tankers on the Pacific coast.
– About as crazy as forbidding federal scientists to say anything about climate change and threatening to revoke the charitable tax status of voluntary organizations that seek to protect the environment.
– About as crazy as neglecting the price Canadians are already paying for climate change: power outages, damaged homes, spoiled food, lost productivity, higher insurance premiums, the cost of stocking up on everything from generators to non-perishable food.
– About as crazy as pledging to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 17 per cent at a 2009 climate change conference in Copenhagen without any plan to limit the carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide spewed into the atmosphere by the oil and gas industry.
Harper was right in one respect. This would be an inopportune time to crack down on Alberta’s energy producers, which are reeling from a 40-per-cent drop in oil prices since June. He should have done it in 2008 when the price of oil peaked at $145 a barrel. He had another chance after the 2008-2009 recession when it reached a high of $100 a barrel in early 2011. He could have done it last spring when it was $115 a barrel.
But he always had an excuse for not moving. The economy was too fragile. Canada dared not get out of step with the United States. The science of climate change was unproven. Curbing greenhouses gases would put Canada at a competitive disadvantage to nations such as China, India and Russia. A technological solution — carbon capture and storage for example — would come along.
Until recently, the silent majority was acquiescent. The cost of heating their homes and filling up their gas tanks mattered more to voters than the notional damage done by greenhouse gases. The embarrassment of having the worst climate change record in the industrial world didn’t affect them personally.
But the cost-benefit balance has changed. The central pillar of Harper’s economic strategy — being an aggressive fossil fuel exporter — has crumbled in a world awash with petroleum. Investors are cancelling their commitments. Employment in the oil and gas sector is shrinking. Government revenues are dropping.
Even if there were an appetite for Alberta’s viscous oil, it would be landlocked. President Barack Obama is withholding approval for the Keystone XL pipeline. First Nations in British Columbia are dead set against the Northern Gateway pipeline.
The provincial premiers, tired of waiting for leadership from Ottawa, have hatched their own plan to build a low-carbon economy by putting a price on pollution, developing renewable energy and capping greenhouse gases.
The fiscal outlook has darkened. The Conservatives may squeak through this year with a balanced budget, but the escalating surpluses they are projecting out to 2020 will melt if revenue from the oil patch keeps plummeting.
Public opinion is shifting. More than half of Canadians expressed deep concern about climate change in a poll conducted by the Environics Institute in October. Three-quarters said they were worried about the legacy they were leaving for future generations.
All of this — combined with increasingly bleak economic forecasts — casts doubt on Harper’s assiduously burnished reputation as a prudent manager and undercuts his rationale for sacrificing the environment to spur economic growth.
As Canada heads into an election year, the prime minister might want to stop tossing around words like “crazy.”
< http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2014/12/14/slumping_oil_price_undercuts_stephen_harper_goar.html >
Tags: economy, ideology, jurisdiction, tax
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